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Seven years ago, it took just eight words to energize a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the words met with wild cheering as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.

During that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he would later replace.

The Shift of Stance and Closed Debates

In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if polling evidence indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. While EU relations is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, a lid which was tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language regarding the damage caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels in 2024 provides gains quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure and Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version designed to boost growth program for young people by which youths can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines are still in place, there exist avenues to work around them. A proposal involves announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Scepticism

However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again cautioning that a return to a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. First, he thinks a customs pact is now significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from European rules in numerous policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Strategy & Geopolitical Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, found on a proposal that the US government will intervene in British politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.

However, instead of deciding that this renders the US an unreliable partner, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation & The Echo from the Past

This situation brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch to become leader but simply an attempt to keep open the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is part of a group of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Risk and A Prudent Reminder

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be wise for Starmer to recall the effect that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.