How Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Struggles With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's scheduled negotiations on the near lengthy war in the region have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an impending US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
  • Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
  • Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs Washington without results

The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in Trump's attempts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get Russia done," he said.

Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.

Reduced Influence

According to the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a deal was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump gained from a long record of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, including his choice to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Add in Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in August produced no concrete results.

Putin may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.

In July, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.

Last week, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called the US president who then touted the potential summit in Budapest.

The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.

The US leader maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"You know, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.

"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.

Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.

During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that ending the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Andrew Smith
Andrew Smith

Elara Vance is a certified financial planner with over 15 years of experience in wealth management and investment strategies.