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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.